Uranium Price Sensitivity

The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table.

It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of fully-executed, long-term contracts we had in place on September 30, 2023 would respond to various spot prices at September 30, 2023. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on September 30, 2023 and none of the assumptions we list below change.

We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.

Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at September 30, 2023

(rounded to the nearest $1.00)

Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8) $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140
2023 46 47 48 49 49 49 50
2024 35 41 51 56 58 59 60
2025 37 43 54 61 64 65 66
2026 40 43 56 65 68 69 70
2027 41 44 56 67 71 72 73

Our portfolio includes a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts, which we target at a 40:60 ratio. Those that are fixed at higher prices or have high floor prices will yield prices that are higher than current market prices.

As of September 30, 2023, we had commitments requiring delivery of an average of 29 million pounds per year from 2023 through 2027, with commitment levels in 2023 through 2025 higher than the average and in 2026 and 2027 lower than the average. As the market improves, we expect to continue to layer in volumes capturing greater upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.

Assumptions

Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:

Prices
  • The uranium price remains fixed at a given spot level for each annual period shown
Deliveries
  • Deliveries based on commitments under finalized contracts include best estimates of the expected deliveries under contract terms
Annual inflation
  • To reflect escalation mechanisms contained in existing contracts, the long-term US inflation rate of 2% is used, for modeling purposes only

Caution about Forward-Looking Information

Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.