Uranium Price Sensitivity
The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table.
To help understand how the pricing under our current portfolio of commitments is expected to react at various spot prices at December 31, 2025, we have constructed the table that follows.
The table is based on the volumes and pricing terms under the long-term commitments in our contract portfolio that have been finalized as at December 31, 2025. The table does not include:
Volumes and pricing terms in contracts either under negotiation or accepted but subject to final external approvals
Potential future volumes which are not currently under contract
Based on the terms and volumes under contracts that have been finalized, the table is designed to indicate how our average realized price would react under various spot price assumptions at a point in time. In other words, the prices shown in the table would only be realized if the contract portfolio remained exactly as it was on December 31, 2025 using the assumptions noted below.
We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions at December 31, 2025
(rounded to the nearest $1.00)
| Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8) | $40 | $60 | $80 | $100 | $120 | $140 | $160 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 58 | 65 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 |
| 2027 | 46 | 57 | 69 | 74 | 76 | 78 | 79 |
| 2028 | 49 | 59 | 72 | 79 | 84 | 88 | 91 |
| 2029 | 51 | 61 | 74 | 84 | 90 | 94 | 99 |
| 2030 | 52 | 62 | 75 | 87 | 93 | 98 | 104 |
As of December 31, 2025, we had commitments requiring delivery of an average of about 28 million pounds per year from 2026 through 2030, with commitment levels in 2026 through 2028 higher than the average and in 2029 and 2030 lower than the average, reflecting our disciplined approach to contracting. As the market improves, we expect to continue to layer in volumes capturing greater upside using market-related pricing mechanisms.
Assumptions
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
Prices
- The uranium price remains fixed at a given spot level for each annual period shown
Deliveries
- Deliveries based on commitments under finalized contracts include best estimates of the expected deliveries and flexibility under contract terms
Annual inflation
- To reflect escalation mechanisms contained in existing contracts, the long-term US inflation rate of 2% is used, for modeling purposes only
Caution about Forward-Looking Information
Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.