Uranium Price Sensitivity
The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table. It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of long-term contracts we had in place on March 31, 2020 would respond to different spot prices. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on March 31, 2020 and none of the assumptions we list below change.
We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions
(rounded to the nearest $1.00)
|Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8)||$20||$40||$60||$80||$100||$120||$140|
The table illustrates the mix of long-term contracts in our portfolio, and is consistent with our marketing strategy. It has been updated to reflect contracts entered into up to March 31, 2020.
Our portfolio includes a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts, which we target at a 40:60 ratio. Those that are fixed at lower prices or have low ceiling prices will yield prices that are lower than current market prices.
For 2020, the expected volume of remaining spot purchases is higher than the volume of planned deliveries that are tied to market prices. As a result, our adjusted net earnings and cash flow are expected to move in the opposite direction from the uranium spot price. However, the impact on adjusted net earnings is expected to be very small with cash flow expected to be more sensitive to price changes. Cash inflows from uranium deliveries are expected to be relatively less sensitive to an increase in the spot price than cash outflows from uranium purchases.
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
- sales volumes on average of 19 million pounds per year, with commitment levels in 2020 and 2021 higher than in 2022 through 2024
- excludes sales between our segments
- deliveries include best estimates of requirements contracts and contracts with volume flex provisions
- is 2% in the US
the average long-term price indicator is the same as the average spot price for the entire year (a simplified approach for this purpose only). Since 1996, the long-term price indicator has averaged 20% higher than the spot price. This differential has varied significantly. Assuming the long-term price is at a premium to spot, the prices in the table will be higher.
Caution about Forward-Looking Information
Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.