Uranium Price Sensitivity

The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table. It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of long-term contracts we had in place on September 30, 2017 would respond to different spot prices. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on September 30, 2017 and none of the assumptions we list below change.

We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.

Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions

(rounded to the nearest $1.00)

Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8) $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 $140
2018 36 44 55 65 75 84 91
2019 32 42 55 65 74 81 87
2020 32 42 55 65 74 81 87
2021 30 42 57 67 76 84 92

The table illustrates the mix of long-term contracts in our September 30, 2017 portfolio, and is consistent with our marketing strategy. It has been updated to reflect contracts entered into up to September 30, 2017, and it excludes our contract under dispute with TEPCO.

Our portfolio includes a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts, which we target at a 40:60 ratio. Those that are fixed at higher prices or have high floor prices will yield prices that are higher than current market prices.

Assumptions

Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:

Sales

  • sales volumes on average of 26 million pounds per year, with commitment levels in 2017 through 2019 higher than in 2020 and 2021
  • excludes sales between our uranium, fuel services and NUKEM segments
  • excludes the contract under dispute with TEPCO

Deliveries

  • deliveries include best estimates of requirements contracts and contracts with volume flex provisions

Annual inflation

  • is 2.5% in the US

Prices

  • the average long-term price indicator is the same as the average spot price for the entire year (a simplified approach for this purpose only). Since 1996, the long-term price indicator has averaged 20% higher than the spot price. This differential has varied significantly. Assuming the long-term price is at a premium to spot, the prices in the table will be higher.

Caution about Forward-Looking Information

Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.