Uranium Price Sensitivity
The following table is not a forecast of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table. It is designed to indicate how the portfolio of long-term contracts we had in place on September 30, 2018 would respond to different spot prices. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on September 30, 2018 and none of the assumptions we list below change.
We intend to update this table each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio. As a result, we expect the table to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions
(rounded to the nearest $1.00)
|Spot prices ($US/lb U3O8)||$20||$40||$60||$80||$100||$120||$140|
The table illustrates the mix of long-term contracts in our September 30, 2018 portfolio, and is consistent with our marketing strategy. It has been updated to reflect contracts entered into up to September 30, 2018, and it excludes our contract under dispute with TEPCO.
Our portfolio includes a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts, which we target at a 40:60 ratio. Those that are fixed at higher prices or have high floor prices will yield prices that are higher than current market prices.
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
- sales volumes on average of 24 million pounds per year, with commitment levels of between 35 million and 36 million pounds in 2018 and 27 million to 29 million pounds in 2019. Commitments for 2020 through 2022 are lower.
- excludes sales between our segments
- excludes the contract under dispute with TEPCO
- deliveries include best estimates of requirements contracts and contracts with volume flex provisions
- is 2% in the US
the average long-term price indicator is the same as the average spot price for the entire year (a simplified approach for this purpose only). Since 1996, the long-term price indicator has averaged 21% higher than the spot price. This differential has varied significantly. Assuming the long-term price is at a premium to spot, the prices in the table will be higher.
Caution about Forward-Looking Information
Please click here for additional information about the assumptions applied in making the forward-looking statements on this page and the factors that could cause results to differ materially.