Supply & Demand

A market in transition

In 2025, geopolitical uncertainty and heightened concerns about energy security, national security, and climate security continued to improve the demand and supply fundamentals for the nuclear power industry, and the fuel cycle that is required to support it. Increasingly, countries and companies around the globe are recognizing the critical role nuclear power is expected to play in providing carbon-free and secure baseload power, which was reaffirmed at the 30th Conference of Parties (COP30), with the declaration to triple nuclear energy capacity by 2050 now signed by 33 countries. 

This continued and growing support has led to a rise in demand as closed reactors are returning to service, reactors are being saved from retirement, life extensions are being sought and approved for existing reactor fleets, and numerous commitments and plans are advancing for the construction of new nuclear generating capacity. In addition, the market for small modular reactors (SMR), including smaller versions of existing technology and advanced technology designs, continues to mature, with companies in energy intensive sectors looking to nuclear to help achieve their decarbonization plans. The potential expansion of the markets and use cases for nuclear energy could add significant demand for additional capacity in the decades to come, with a growing number of agreements being signed and several projects already underway.

While demand for uranium and nuclear fuel continues to increase, future supply is not keeping pace. Heightened supply risk caused by growing geopolitical uncertainty, shrinking secondary supplies and a lack of investment in new capacity over the past decade has motivated utilities to evaluate their near-, mid- and long-term nuclear fuel supply chains. The uncertainty about where nuclear fuel supplies will come from to satisfy growing demand has led to significant long-term contracting activity in recent years. In 2025, about 116 million pounds of uranium was placed under long-term contracts by utilities, with increased activity late in the year. The annual volume remained below replacement rate, potentially increasing the cumulative level of uncovered requirements in the future, when primary supply is expected to be limited, and secondary supply stocks have been drawn down. 

Uranium spot prices experienced volatility in 2025 and averaged US$73.54 per pound, while the long-term uranium price strengthened throughout 2025, peaking in December at a 14-year high of US$86.50 per pound. The conversion market saw historic highs in term pricing, with a 27% average yearly price increase, while the average spot price increased 4% over that timeframe, and in enrichment, spot and term prices rose over 10% and 6% respectively compared to 2024. We expect continued competition to secure uranium, conversion services and enrichment services under long-term contracts with proven sustainable producers and suppliers who have a diversified portfolio of assets in geopolitically attractive jurisdictions, and on terms that help ensure a reliable supply is available to satisfy demand.

Supply uncertainty

Geopolitical uncertainty, energy security, and national security remained the most notable factors impacting security of supply in 2025. Driven by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the mine suspension in Niger in 2024, and supply chain challenges, particularly in Kazakhstan, many governments and utilities are re-examining procurement strategies that rely on nuclear fuel supplies from higher risk jurisdictions. 

In addition, sanctions on Russia and import/export restrictions added to the delivery risks for nuclear fuel supplies coming out of Central Asia. Several idled uranium mines restarted operations in 2025 in support of increased demand, though delays and higher-than-expected production costs were a common theme. 

Despite the positive price trend in 2025, the deepening geopolitical uncertainty, sanctions and trade policy restrictions, and years of underinvestment in new uranium and fuel cycle service capacities, risk has shifted from producers to utilities.

Durable demand growth

The geopolitical uncertainty and a realignment of global energy markets have deepened concerns about climate, energy and national security, highlighting the role of energy policy in balancing three main objectives: providing a reliable and secure baseload profile; providing an affordable, levelized cost profile; and providing a clean emissions profile. 

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The global call to triple nuclear energy capacity is also drawing attention to a broader triple‑security challenge: enhancing climate security by accelerating the shift away from carbon‑emitting thermal energy; strengthening energy security by expanding access to clean, reliable, and scalable baseload electricity for the roughly one‑third of the world’s population still experiencing energy poverty; and supporting national security by diversifying energy systems with dependable, domestically sourced, and geopolitically resilient power generation. 

There is increasing recognition that nuclear power contributes meaningfully across all three dimensions and has a key role to play in supporting long‑term climate, energy, and national security objectives. The growth in demand is not just long-term and in the form of new builds, but medium-term in the form of reactor restarts and life extensions, and near-term with early reactor retirement plans being deferred or cancelled and new markets continuing to emerge. Longterm momentum remains very supportive with the installed base of nuclear capacity and an increasing focus on large-scale new build and the development of SMRs.

According to the IAEA, there are currently 436 operable nuclear reactors and 66 reactors under construction, globally. Several nations are appreciating the energy security and carbon-free energy benefits of nuclear power and have reaffirmed their commitment with plans underway to support existing reactor units and review of policies to encourage more nuclear generation. Non-nuclear countries continue to emerge as candidates for new nuclear capacity. In some countries where nuclear phase-out policies have been in place, policy reversals and decisions to continue reactor operations and/or consider adding more nuclear capacity are under consideration. With a number of reactor construction projects recently approved and many more planned, demand for uranium continues to improve. 

There is growing recognition of the role nuclear must play in providing safe, affordable, carbon-free baseload electricity to achieve a low-carbon economy, with geopolitical uncertainty causing numerous utilities to move away from Russian energy supplies and seek reliable nuclear fuel suppliers whose values are aligned with their own, or whose origin of supply better protects them from potential interruptions.

In November, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) World Energy Outlook 2025 highlighted unprecedented global energy security risks amid surging electricity demand from digitalization, industrial growth, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) data centers. After decades of relatively limited growth, the IEA now expects global electricity demand to grow by at least one third by 2035.

Supply-Demand: Putting it Together

Like other commodities, demand for uranium is cyclical. However, unlike other commodities, uranium is not traded in meaningful quantities on a commodity exchange. The uranium market is principally based on bilaterally negotiated long-term contracts covering the annual run-rate requirements of nuclear power plants, with a small spot market to serve discretionary demand. History demonstrates that in general, when prices are rising and high, uranium is perceived as scarce, and more contracting activity takes place with proven and reliable suppliers. 

The higher demand discovered during this phase drives investment in higher-cost sources of production, which due to lengthy development timelines, tend to miss the contracting cycle and ramp up after demand has already been captured by proven producers. When prices are declining and low, there is no perceived urgency to contract, and contracting activity and investment in new supply dramatically decreases. 

After years of low prices, and a lack of investment in supply, and as the uncommitted material available in the spot market begins to thin, security-of-supply tends to overtake price concerns. Utilities typically re-enter the long-term contracting market to ensure they have a reliable future supply of uranium to fuel their reactors. 

UxC reports that over the last five years approximately 589 million pounds U3O8 equivalent have been contracted in the long-term market, while approximately 815 million pounds U3O8 equivalent have been consumed in reactors. We therefore remain confident that utilities have an increasing level of uncovered requirements.

We believe the current backlog of long-term contracting presents a substantial opportunity for proven and reliable suppliers with tier-one productive capacity and a record of honouring supply commitments. As a low-cost producer, we manage our operations to increase value throughout these price cycles. 

In our industry, customers do not come to the market right before they need to load nuclear fuel into their reactors. To operate a reactor that could run for more than 60 years, natural uranium and the downstream services have to be purchased years in advance, allowing time for a number of processing steps before a finished fuel bundle arrives at the power plant. At present, we believe there is a significant amount of uranium that needs to be contracted to keep reactors running into the next decade.

UxC estimates that cumulative uncovered requirements are about 3.1 billion pounds to the end of 2045. With the lack of investment over the past decade, there is growing uncertainty about where uranium will come from to satisfy growing demand, and utilities are becoming increasingly concerned about the availability of material to meet their long-term needs. In addition, secondary supplies have diminished, and the material available in the spot market has thinned as producers and financial funds continue to purchase material. Furthermore, geopolitical uncertainty is causing some utilities to seek nuclear fuel suppliers whose values are aligned with their own or whose origin of supply better protects them from potential interruptions, including from transportation challenges or the possible imposition of formal sanctions.  

We will continue to take the actions we believe are necessary to position the company for long-term success. Therefore, we will continue to align our production decisions with our customers’ needs under our contract portfolio. We will undertake contracting activity which is intended to ensure we have adequate protection while maintaining exposure to the benefits that come from having uncommitted, low-cost supply to place into a strengthening market.