|Production volume (million lbs)||23.6||21.9||8%|
|Sales volume (million lbs)||32.8||32.9||–|
|Average spot price ($US/lb)||38.17||48.40||(21)%|
|Average long-term price ($US/lb)||54.13||60.13||(10)%|
|Average realized price|
|Average unit cost of sales ($Cdn/lb) (including D&A)||33.01||32.09||3%|
|Revenue ($ millions)||1,633||1,571||4%|
|Gross profit ($ millions)||550||514||7%|
|Gross profit (%)||34||33||3%|
Production volumes in 2013 were 8% higher than 2012 due to higher production from nearly every site compared to 2012. See Uranium – production overview for more information.
Uranium revenues this year were up 4% compared to 2012, due to an increase of 4% in the Canadian dollar average realized price. Although the spot and term prices were lower than 2012, our average realized prices this year were higher mainly due to the mix of contracts, higher US dollar prices under fixed price contracts and the effect of foreign exchange. The realized foreign exchange rate was $1.03 compared to $1.00 in 2012. The spot price for uranium averaged $38.17 (US) per pound in 2013, a decline of 21% compared to the 2012 average price of $48.40 (US) per pound. Total cost of sales (including D&A) remained stable compared to 2012 at $1.1 billion as an increase in the average unit cost of sales was offset by slightly lower sales volumes.
The net effect was a $36 million increase in gross profit for the year.
The following table shows the costs of produced and purchased uranium incurred in the reporting periods (non-IFRS measures, see below). These costs do not include selling costs such as royalties, transportation and commissions, nor do they reflect the impact of opening inventories on our reported cost of sales.
|Total production cost||27.83||28.08||(1)%|
|Quantity produced (million lbs)||23.6||21.9||8%|
|Quantity purchased (million lbs)||13.2||11.2||18%|
|Produced and purchased costs||27.87||28.22||(1)%|
|Quantities produced and purchased (million lbs)||36.8||33.1||11%|
Cash cost per pound, non-cash cost per pound and total cost per pound for produced and purchased uranium presented in the above table are non-IFRS measures. These measures do not have a standardized meaning or a consistent basis of calculation under IFRS. We use these measures in our assessment of the performance of our uranium business. We believe that, in addition to conventional measures prepared in accordance with IFRS, certain investors use this information to evaluate our performance and ability to generate cash flow.
These measures are non-standard supplemental information and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared according to accounting standards. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flow from operations as determined under IFRS. Other companies may calculate these measures differently, so you may not be able to make a direct comparison to similar measures presented by other companies.
To facilitate a better understanding of these measures, the table below presents a reconciliation of these measures to our unit cost of sales for the years ended 2013 and 2012 as reported in our financial statements.
Cash and total cost per pound reconciliation
|Cost of product sold||869.1||883.7|
|Add / (subtract)|
|Other selling costs||(1.4)||(6.2)|
|Change in inventories||63.1||23.1|
|Cash operating costs (a)||802.6||756.0|
|Add / (subtract)|
|Depreciation and amortization||212.9||172.9|
|Change in inventories||10.1||5.2|
|Total operating costs (b)||1,025.6||934.1|
|Uranium produced and purchased (million lbs) (c)||36.8||33.1|
|Cash costs per pound (a ÷ c)||21.81||22.84|
|Total costs per pound (b ÷ c)||27.87||28.22|
Outlook for 2014
We expect to produce 23.8 million to 24.3 million pounds in 2014 and have commitments under long-term contracts to purchase approximately 2 million pounds.
Based on the contracts we have in place, we expect to deliver between 31 million and 33 million pounds of U3O8 in 2014. We expect the unit cost of sales to be up to 5% higher than in 2013, primarily due to higher costs for produced material. In 2014, we will complete a number of capital projects at our various production facilities, including Cigar Lake. Upon completion, we will begin to depreciate the assets, which will increase the non-cash portion of our production costs. In addition, until Cigar Lake ramps up to full production, the cash cost of material produced from the mine will initially be higher. If we make additional discretionary purchases in 2014, then we expect the overall unit cost of sales to increase further.
Based on current spot prices, revenue should be up to 5% higher than it was in 2013 as a result of an expected increase in the realized price.
Price sensitivity analysis: uranium
The table and graph below are not forecasts of prices we expect to receive. The prices we actually realize will be different from the prices shown in the table and graph. They are designed to indicate how the portfolio of long-term contracts we had in place on December 31, 2013 would respond to different spot prices. In other words, we would realize these prices only if the contract portfolio remained the same as it was on December 31, 2013, and none of the assumptions we list below change.
We intend to update this table and graph each quarter in our MD&A to reflect deliveries made and changes to our contract portfolio each quarter. As a result, we expect the table and graph to change from quarter to quarter.
Expected realized uranium price sensitivity under various spot price assumptions
|Spot Prices ($US/lb U3O8)||$20||$40||$60||$80||$100||$120||$140|
The table and graph illustrate the mix of long-term contracts in our December 31, 2013 portfolio, and are consistent with our marketing strategy. Both have been updated to reflect deliveries made and contracts entered into up to December 31, 2013.
Our portfolio includes a mix of fixed-price and market-related contracts, which we target at a 40:60 ratio. Those that are fixed at lower prices or have low ceiling prices will yield prices that are lower than current market prices.
Our portfolio is affected by more than just the spot price. We made the following assumptions (which are not forecasts) to create the table:
- sales volumes on average of 30 million pounds per year, with commitment levels through 2016 higher than in 2017 and 2018
- deliveries include best estimates of requirements contracts and contracts with volume flex provisions
- we defer a portion of deliveries under existing contracts for 2014
- is 1.5% in Canada and 2% in the US
- the average long-term price indicator is the same as the average spot price for the entire year (a simplified approach for this purpose only). Since 1996, the long-term price indicator has averaged 17% higher than the spot price. This differential has varied significantly. Assuming the long-term price is at a premium to spot, the prices in the table and graph will be higher.
On January 3, 2014, the government of Saskatchewan released regulations to implement the changes to the Saskatchewan uranium royalty system originally announced in the 2013 provincial budget.
The government has changed tiered royalties from a revenue-based system to a modified profit-based system, retroactive to January 1, 2013. Under the new system, a 10% royalty will be charged on profit up to and including $22/kg U3O8 ($9.98/lb), and a 15% royalty on profit in excess of $22/kg U3O8. Profit will be determined as revenue less certain operating, exploration, reclamation and capital costs (applied to Saskatchewan uranium production). Under the new system, both exploration and capital costs will be deductible at the discretion of the producer.
During the period from 2013 to 2015, transitional rules will apply whereby only 50% of capital costs will be deductible. The remaining 50% will be accumulated and deductible commencing in 2016. In addition, the capital allowance related to Cigar Lake under the previous system will be grandfathered and deductible in 2016.
Also, as previously reported, the net basic royalty (basic royalty of 5% less the Saskatchewan resource credit) increased from 4.0% to 4.25% effective April 1, 2013. Other than the increase of the rate, there were no changes to the determination of the basic royalty, which continues to be levied by the province on the gross revenue from the sales of Saskatchewan uranium production.