In 2005, Cameco's fuel services business consisted of refining and conversion services. Refining is an intermediate step to prepare uranium to be converted into either UF6 or UO2. As of 2006, this business also includes fuel fabrication services for Candu-type reactors as a result of our acquisition of Zircatec. See the following discussion under "Fuel Fabrication."
The industry practice for measuring conversion services is kilograms of uranium (kgU) rather than pounds of U3O8. For example, 66 million kgU is equivalent to about 172 million pounds U3O8.
CONVERSION DEMAND
World demand for UF6 and natural UO2 conversion services was estimated to be about 66 million kilograms of uranium (kgU) in 2005. Western world demand accounted for almost 58 million kgU with the remaining 8 million kgU coming from the non-western world (Russia, China and eastern Europe).
Over the next 10 years, world demand is expected to increase by 27% to about 84 million kgU. In 2006, total world conversion demand is expected to increase by 1%.
CONVERSION SUPPLY
The western world UF6 conversion industry consists of Cameco and three other significant producers, with an annual conversion capacity of about 47 million kgU. In 2005, Cameco signed a toll-conversion agreement to acquire UF6 conversion services from one of these other converters, Springfields in Lancashire, United Kingdom. Under the 10-year agreement, Springfields will annually convert a base quantity of 5 million kgU to UF6 for Cameco. This new source, coupled with our Canadian UF6 plant, will account for almost 40% of the western world capacity.
In addition, supplies are available from secondary sources including excess western inventories, Russian sales in the form of low enriched uranium, Russian re-enriched depleted tails, and Russian and US uranium derived from dismantling nuclear weapons. Russia supplies most of the UF6 conversion requirements of the former Soviet Union and eastern Europe in the form of low enriched uranium.
CONVERSION MARKETS
Utilities contract about 90% of their UF6 conversion services through long-term contracts, purchasing the remainder on the spot market. Cameco is the only commercial supplier in the world of conversion for natural UO2 customers. In addition to the Canadian requirements Cameco also exports UO2 to South Korea for its Candu reactors and to the US and Japan for use as blanket fuel in boiling water reactors. Cameco also sells conversion services packaged with U3O8 as a UF6 or UO2 product.
| Year-end prices ($US/kgU as UF6) |
||||
| Markets | 2005 | 2004 | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spot UF6 conversion1 | ||||
| North America | 11.50 | 9.00 | 28 | |
| Europe | 11.50 | 10.00 | 15 | |
| Long-term UF6 conversion1,2 | ||||
| North America | 12.00 | 10.00 | 20 | |
| Europe | 12.88 | 11.50 | 12 | |
| 1 Prices are industry averages. | ||||
| 2 TradeTech only for 2004 prices. | ||||
SPOT/LONG-TERM CONVERSION MARKET
Spot market UF6 conversion prices remained strong during 2005. Spot prices increased 28% for North American conversion services and 15% for European conversion services year-over-year. Outlined below are the industry average spot market prices (Trade Tech and Ux) for North American and European conversion services.
The industry average long-term prices (TradeTech and Ux) for North American and European conversion services are reported below. Long-term prices increased 20% for North American conversion services and 12% for European conversion services year-over-year.
The industry does not publish UO2 prices.
CONVERSION BUSINESS – KEY PERFORMANCE DRIVERS
The major factors that drive Cameco's conversion business results are:
- prices – spot and long-term,
- volume – sales, production and purchases,
- costs – production and purchases, and
- the relationship between the US and Canadian dollars.
PRICES – SPOT/LONG-TERM
Cameco sells its conversion services directly to utilities located in many parts of the world, primarily through long-term contracts. Conversion services are priced in US dollars per kgU. The majority of conversion sales are at fixed prices adjusted for inflation. In 2005, most of our conversion sales were made under long-term contracts negotiated in a low price environment and therefore, we did not benefit from the increase in UF6 conversion spot prices during the year.
Going forward, the majority of our contract commitments, totalling more than 75 million kgU over more than 10 years, are at fixed prices adjusted for inflation.
We continue to sign new long-term contracts with fixed prices that generally reflect long-term prices at the time of the contract award. Like uranium sales, we begin delivery of conversion services up to four years after the agreement has finalized. Therefore, in the coming years, Cameco's contract portfolio will benefit from higher fixed-price contracts signed.
VOLUMES – SALES, PRODUCTION, PURCHASES
Sales Volume
Cameco sold 16.6 million kgU of conversion services in 2005, down marginally from the record 16.9 million kgU in 2004. We expect conversion sales volume to total about 19.0 million kgU in 2006, up 14% from 2005.
Production Volume
Total production at our Port Hope conversion facility for 2005 was 11.4 million kgU, up 21% from 9.5 million kgU for 2004, which mainly reflects the impact of a seven-week labour disruption in 2004. Production in 2005 was about 17% lower than we planned due to problems in fluorine generation. This was compounded by a difficult restart of the UF6 plant after our regular maintenance shutdown, which primarily resulted from the hot and humid weather experienced during the summer months when the restart occurred. Our planned production for 2006, is projected to be about 14.2 million kgU, up 25% from 2005.
At our Blind River refinery, unused capacity was utilized to supply UO3 for the Springfields UF6 toll-conversion agreement announced last year. A record 15.1 million kgU as UO3 was produced up 44% from 10.5 million kgU in 2004. In 2006, we expect the Blind River refinery to produce 18.0 million kgU as UO3 to feed both Port Hope and Springfields conversion facilities. The 18.0 million kgU represents a 19% increase over 2005 UO3 production and equals the current licensed capacity of the plant.
We have filed a proposal with the CNSC to increase the production capacity of the Blind River refinery to 24 million kgU per year from 18 million. This increase will require an environmental assessment and regulatory approval. Cameco expects to complete the environmental assessment in 2006. Once regulatory approval is received, relatively minor plant modifications will be required to achieve the increased capacity.
Purchase Volume
Cameco also has purchase commitments, which primarily reflect the conversion component of the low enriched uranium (LEU) from Russian HEU, re-enriched tails product and the company's agreement to purchase Springfields' conversion services for a 10-year period beginning in 2006. Cameco's UF6 conversion purchase commitments at December 31, 2005 total about 73 million kgU, most as conversion services.
COSTS
Cameco's mix of production and purchases influences its cost of sales. Conversion operating costs are primarily fixed with about 45% attributable to labour. The largest variable operating cost is for anhydrous hydrogen fluoride, followed by energy (gas and electricity).
The majority of Cameco's UF6 conversion purchase commitments are under long-term, fixed-price arrangements reflecting prices lower than current spot prices. These purchase commitments totalled $395 million (US) at December 31, 2005. Refer to note 21 in the notes to consolidated financial statements. A significant portion of these purchases has been committed under existing sales contracts.
FOREIGN EXCHANGE
The majority of the company's conversion services are sold in the US and sales are denominated in US dollars, while production costs are incurred in Canada and denominated in Canadian dollars. As a result, the strengthening of the Canadian dollar against the US dollar in 2005 negatively affected Cameco's results. A discussion about Cameco's hedging program can be found in the uranium business section under the heading "Foreign Exchange."
FUEL FABRICATION
Cameco acquired a 100% interest in Zircatec in early 2006 for $108 million subject to closing adjustments. Zircatec's primary business is manufacturing nuclear fuel bundles for sale to companies that generate electricity from Candu reactors.
This acquisition is expected to be moderately accretive to cash flow and earnings in 2006, assuming there is no significant change to existing revenue and costs.
In Port Hope, Ontario, Zircatec operates a facility that is licensed to handle uranium materials. As a service to utility customers, the plant presses uranium dioxide powder into pellets that are loaded into tubes and then assembled into fuel bundles. These bundles are ready to insert into the reactor core as fuel to generate clean electricity. Zircatec supplies these fuel bundles to Candu-style reactors, with sales to Bruce Power currently representing a substantial portion of its business. The plant's annual capacity is 1,200 tonnes uranium as finished fuel.
In Cobourg, Ontario, Zircatec also operates a facility where the primary product is zirconium tubing, an integral part of fuel bundles used by nuclear reactors. The plant also manufactures various Candu reactor components and monitoring equipment.
FUEL SERVICES STRATEGIES
Cameco's objective is to build on and leverage its competitive advantage in fuel services. In doing so, we strive to meet three major goals:
- remain a low-cost producer,
- protect and expand market position, and
- maintain supply flexibility.
To achieve these goals, the company's strategies are to improve its margins and to protect and grow its market position. We plan to improve our margins by increasing capacity and through quality and business process improvements. In addition, we will pursue fundamental productivity gains through technological development.
To protect and grow market position, we intend to expand or build new capacity. We will limit risk and capital expense by selectively pursuing partnering opportunities with other nuclear fuel cycle participants.
CAPABILITY TO DELIVER RESULTS
Cameco will execute our strategies and deliver on our goals by ensuring :
- community relations at Port Hope continue to strengthen,
- adequate human resources are available to replace an aging workforce,
- capital is available over the longer term given our expansion plans, and
- adequate resources are allocated to maintain and grow our fuel services business.
COMMUNITY RELATIONS
Cameco decided in 2005 not to proceed with a slightly enriched uranium dioxide (SEU) blending project at its Port Hope conversion facility. SEU is the new uranium fuel proposed for use in the Bruce Power reactors in Ontario.
Bruce Power requires SEU for a power uprate project that is expected to enhance the safety and reliability of the Bruce B reactors. SEU is also the basis of the fuel required for the next generation of Candu reactors being developed by Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd.
There was no question that we could produce SEU safely while ensuring public safety and protecting the environment at Port Hope. The public communication process ultimately took longer than anticipated leading to the development of alternate sources of SEU blending to meet the Bruce Power project schedule.
Going forward, we will adopt a more consultative approach to community relations. For example, for Vision 2010, which is a long-term project to remediate and rebuild parts of the Port Hope conversion site, we initiated a community consultation process to obtain input early in the planning stage.
HUMAN RESOURCES
As with our uranium business, we need to ensure we have adequate human resources to replace the aging fuel services workforce. At December 31, 2005, about 35% of the conversion services workforce was age 50 or older. We have developed a strategy to meet that challenge.
REGULATORY APPROVALS
Cameco's plan to grow in the fuel services business depends on securing regulatory approvals for environmental assessments and operating licences at Blind River and Port Hope. We will apply for licence renewals for all three fuel services facilities in 2006 because their existing five-year licences expire in early 2007. In addition to its licence renewal, Zircatec will be applying for a licence amendment for the commercial manufacturing of the SEU required for the Bruce Power power uprate project.
We have also applied to expand the capacity of the Blind River refinery to support our agreement with Springfields and to add additional pollution control equipment.
ADEQUATE RESOURCES
Cameco believes it has the appropriate capabilities in place to maintain its low-cost status, protect and grow its market position and improve its supply flexibility. We intend to remain competitive in the longer term and retain the flexibility to quickly take advantage of future new market opportunities. Cameco constantly reviews options to grow the conversion business to meet these longer-term opportunities.
CONVERSION BUSINESS RESULTS
In 2005 Cameco's conversion business consisted of the uranium refining and conversion facilities located in Ontario.
REVENUE
We established a new record for conversion services revenue in 2005. Revenue from the conversion business rose by 10% to $158 million compared to $144 million in 2004 due to a 12% improvement in the realized price. The benefit of the price improvement was partially offset by a decline in sales volumes that were 2% lower than last year's record deliveries.
| 2005 | 2004 | % change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue ($ millions) | 158 | 144 | 10 |
| Gross profit ($ millions) | 28 | 33 | (15) |
| Gross profit % | 18 | 23 | (22) |
| Earnings before taxes ($ millions) | 25 | 31 | (19) |
| Sales volume (million kgU) | 16.6 | 16.9 | (2) |
| Production volume (million kgU) | 11.4 | 9.5 | 20 |
COST OF PRODUCTS AND SERVICES SOLD
In 2005, the cost of products and services sold was $120 million compared to $102 million in 2004, an increase of 18% due primarily to higher costs for purchased conversion, which have trended upward with the rise in the UF6 spot price. In 2005, the cost of purchased conversion rose about 50% over 2004, due to purchases made to replenish inventory drawn down as a result of the 2004 strike at the Port Hope facility. On a per unit basis, the cost of products and services sold increased by about 18% over the previous year.
DEPRECIATION, DEPLETION AND RECLAMATION
In 2005, DD&R charges were unchanged at $10 million compared to 2004. Similarly the rate of depreciation per unit was unchanged as volumes were only slightly below 2004 quantities.
GROSS PROFIT
In 2005, gross profit from the conversion business amounted to $28 million compared to $33 million in 2004, a decrease of 15%. This decline was attributable to the 18% increase in the unit cost of product sold which more than offset a 12% improvement in the realized price. The gross profit margin for the conversion business declined to 18% from 23% in 2004.
CONVERSION SERVICES OUTLOOK FOR 2006
Cameco expects revenue from the conversion business to be nearly 20% higher than in 2005 due to an anticipated 15% increase in sales deliveries and a 5% improvement in the average realized selling price. We project the gross profit margin to be 18%, unchanged from 2005, as an expected increase in the unit cost is likely to offset the higher anticipated price.
We expect conversion sales volume to total about 19.0 million kgU in 2006 compared to 16.6 million kgU in 2005. Our planned production for 2006 is projected to be about 14.2 million kgU, up from 11.4 million kgU in 2005.
The financial results outlook for the conversion business is based on the following key assumptions:
- no significant changes in our estimates for sales volumes, costs, and prices,
- no disruption of supply from our facilities or third-party sources, and
- a US/Canadian spot exchange rate of $1.16.
CONVERSION SERVICES PRICE SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
The majority of conversion sales are at fixed prices with inflation escalators. In the short term, Cameco's financial results are relatively insensitive to changes in the spot price for conversion. The newer fixed-price contracts generally reflect longer-term prices at the time of contract award. Therefore, in the coming years, our contract portfolio will be positively impacted by higher fixed-price contracts.